Risk and Uncertainty. Communication. David Spiegelhalter. Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, CB3 0WB Cambridge,. United Kingdom. The latest Tweets from David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel). Statistician Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. Own opinions. Cambridge . Communicating risk and. t i t th l f uncertainty: the role of metaphor and analogy. David Spiegelhalter winton professor for the public understanding of risk, p p g.

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Online tools provide cheap, easy opportunities to offer commentary on risk. Researchers who raised the alarm about the risks of exposure to asbestos in the s faced backlash communicaring asbestos manufacturers, for example. Spiegelhaletr school depression almost took me to the end of the road—but I found a new start By Francis Aguisanda Nov.

Rosenberg advises that early-career scientists seek feedback and mentoring from other scientists. Alex describes the principles in detail on the official Loop page.

Talking to the public about risk

Our work focuses on the appropriate use of quantitative methods in dealing with risk and uncertainty in the lives of individuals and society. In the United Kingdom, all women aged 50 to 70 are invited for breast screening every 3 years; the leaflet helps them decide whether to take the test.

Maynard produces short YouTube videos where he discusses the risks of electronic cigarettes or HPV vaccines, among other topics. While researchers may play their part by communicating their own results, David Spiegelhalterthe Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk in the statistical laboratory at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, says scientists can also police what others say about risk.

This Centre, generously funded by the David and Claudia Harding Foundationis based in the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics in Cambridge, and is dedicated to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society. Googling ‘Uncertainty’ should find it.

In and previous years I taught Part 1B Statistics – this is my teaching page. One way to do this is to raise issues with other researchers through online networks like ResearchGate.


David Spiegelhalter’s Personal Home Page

However we try to take a view of the subject dvaid extends beyond the application of probability and statistics, acknowledging that there are deeper uncertainties that cannot be easily put into a formal framework, and that social and psychological issues necessarily play a vital role.

This is the home page for the book, and this is the resource site for teachers. Science 21 December VolIssue daviid I am the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket in the baize – more like a putting green than a pool table.

Risk assessment tells us the two have the same expected annual mortality: The issue divides the medical community, Spiegelhalter says, but the publication has been well received because it spells out risks and benefits clearly and uses real-life figures that the public can easily grasp. Provided their public statements are based on sound research methods and findings, scientists generally have no reason to worry about legal backlash. While scientists and risk professionals most often take a rational approach to deciding when a risk is big xommunicating to speak up, they need to understand that the public or scientists outside their field of expertise may perceive and rank risks differently.

Me in action at the Port Eliot Festival where I won the Loop championship – this was done using a mixture of mathematical insight, a little skill arising from a mis-spent youth, and a huge dose of luck. How to seriously read a scientific paper By Elisabeth Pain Mar. You have to know what you’re talking about. Understanding Uncertainty This is an educational resource featuring the use of probability and statistics in everyday life, and makes extensive use of animations to help ‘tell the story’ of the data.

What can we learn from Dartmouth? More than 3 years later, four scientists, two engineers, and a government official, all members of Italy’s National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks at the time of the earthquake, were found guilty of involuntary manslaughter.


The seven commission members received a 6-year prison sentence that sparked protests from scientists around the world, concerned that the verdict would push researchers to keep silent about risks in the future.

In Aprilan earthquake hit the town of L’Aquila in central Italy, killing people. Using either of these can make risks look more or less spiegelhzlter, depending on the context, Spiegelhalter says. We fall into the broad category of ‘public understanding of science’, while our work with schools can be considered as ‘maths outreach’.

Above all, your research and knowledge should be rock-solid, Spiegelhalter says: We are involved in a number of different communicatinb Spiegelhalter uses his personal blog and Twitter account. Someone is spear-phishing, pretending to be me. At UCS, Rosenberg advocates a somewhat more assertive posture. In that case, referring to absolute risk could be helpful to provide perspective.

Talking to the public about risk | Science | AAAS

Absolute cojmunicating expresses the likelihood of something happening as a percentage or ratio, while the relative risk compares risk levels in different groups. For example, how a risk is spread over time and space will greatly change how people perceive it, writes Peter Sandman, a U. He suggests that young scientists first watch what senior, high-profile scientists do.

Early-career scientists rarely sit on high-profile committees, but they may, nonetheless, uncover important information about threats to security or wellbeing. Scientific Community Breakdowns of the spiehelhalter Scientific Community Runners-up Development Development cell by cell Scientific Community National Academies urges renewed commitment to fusion Oceanography ‘Five Deeps’ mission to explore mysterious ocean trenches Neuroscience Link to Alzheimer’s seen in nodding syndrome Table of Contents.