positive expectation win bets. c div p er 1) 2) By the Harville formula (Harville ), the estimated probability of a 1,2 or. simple win betting ratios and the Harville formula). These indirect estimates would then be paired with the direct estimates (the betting ratios in the exacta pools). HARVILLE, D. A., “Assigning Probabilities to the Outcomes of Multi-Entry Competitions,” J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., Vol. 68 (), pp. HAUSCH, D. B.
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Discounted Harville – Page 2 – Horse Racing Forum – – Horse Racing Message Board
I just clicked one on of the links “how not to be wrong Spot 2, 4 9. Tags Add Tags exacta harville probability quinella statistics trifecta. I suggest you leave it for 24 hours and perhaps a fresh look at that stage might lead to a resolution.
Michael, The “Discounted Harville” formulae, as requested Excel-like syntax – check accuracy: The probability of BA would be 0. It appears that Google deleted the original “Harville” spreadsheet from the blog some time ago, without requesting my permission?
I’ve been so impressed harvilke the level of knowledge here, I’ve harvilpe idea how I hadn’t found this forum before. Leave for 24 Hours? There are many valid critiques of this formula.
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John Thanks for the update. Forum Mark Forums Read. I inadvertently added an additional SUM term to both equations in my original repy – apologies – never post mathematical equations to forum late at night!
harville – File Exchange – MATLAB Central
These are totally harivlle assumptions but they do give reasonable values. Michael, Apologies for not replying sooner but I have not logged on to the forum for a couple of days.
Choose a web site to get translated content where available and see local events and offers. You are now following this Submission You will see updates in your activity feed You may receive uarville, depending on your notification preferences. There is a considerable number of academic papers on horse racing.
Sorry for bumping a very old thread to the top as my first post on the forum. This question is a follow-on from this question.
Michael, Did you remember to change the prob H3, wins value from 0.
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I have included the “informed Factor” size into my hzrville size calculations. Discover Live Editor Create scripts with code, output, and formatted text in a single executable document.
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I have the original henery formula which is very complex as I am sure foormula know but hadn’t beena ble to get the revised one, so thank you very much.
All of the HorseData objects are contained in a List called hdList. In your program you should get 0. I’m not sure if jfdinneen or mwilding are still about, or if anyone else can help, but I decided to try in excel the formulas jfd contributed so generously below.
Based on your location, we recommend that you select: This calculates the probability of finishing 2nd for each horse. The sum of these probabilities adds to one. And we only need all permutations of the first 3 hraville for betting purposes.
See the paper by D. Given every horse’s probability of winning a race, what is the probability that a specific horse will finish 2nd and 3rd?
Looks like you are in error using the prob of 2nd place when computing prob of 3rd. Michael, As you say, it does not make any sense. Is anybody able to tell me these formulas or point me somewhere I can get them?
The basic Harville method for estimating place, show, quinella, exacta and trifecta probabilities from win probabilities. Horse Racing Forum – PaceAdvantage.
Harville in Journal of the Amer. SInce there are horses who have a good prob. Email Required, but never shown. The most formua one is:. This is all based on individual win probabilities as the starting point. The formula appears to be incorrect.